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First of all, take younger potential voters seriously

First of all, take younger potential voters seriously

Big differences in European and parliamentary elections

The British have often voted extremely differently in European and parliamentary elections. In the 2014 European elections, the anti-European UKIP – with then party leader Farage – was the strongest force with almost 27 percent, ahead of Labor (around 24 percent) and the Conservatives (23 percent). In the British general election in 2015, UKIP came in at just under 13 percent, while the Tories reached just under 37 and Labor around 31 percent. In the 2017 general election, UKIP was only 2 percent.

Comment: Now a whole generation is settling accounts with the Union News blog: The 2019 European elections at a glance New big city party: Greens win the eight largest cities Analysis: SPD – a party is in ruins

In addition, the principle of proportional representation applies in the European elections, while the electoral system of relative majority voting is used in general elections in Great Britain.

The special electoral system of the British

The difference: if a party receives ten percent of the vote in a pure proportional representation, it also receives ten percent of the parliamentary seats. With majority voting, as used in Great Britain, – only – the candidate of a constituency who gets the most votes enters parliament. The votes of the loser of such a decision are not represented in parliament and are thus “lost”. It is theoretically possible that a party that receives a high percentage of the vote nationwide will only get a few seats in parliament. 

For the Brexit party, in the event of a possible general election in Great Britain, this means that it not only has to get as many votes as possible, but also the most votes in the key constituencies.

Brexit opponents get more votes than Brexit hardliners

The result of the European elections in Great Britain is also not as clear a vote for Brexit as Farage portrays it. The parties that clearly support a hard Brexit (Brexit Party and UKIP) come in at just under 37 percent in the European elections. The parties that speak out against Brexit (Liberal Democrats, Greens, Change UK and the Welsh Plaid Cymru), on the other hand, achieved a little over 40 percent.

Labor and the Conservatives, who are completely divided over Brexit internally and among themselves, come together to around 23 percent. One must also note: only 36.5 percent of the British voted in the European elections. In the last parliamentary election in 2017, the turnout was just under 69 percent.

Great Britain remains divided

So the European elections show that the British are still deeply divided over how things should go with Brexit. Whoever succeeds Theresa May has to find a solution to this dilemma. The results of the European elections also show that both new elections and a second referendum would not solve this problem at the moment.

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That means: only a cross-party compromise on Brexit can be a solution. This is exactly where May failed. Should your successor also fail because of this, all that remains is a hard Brexit – or the cancellation of the EU exit.

Despite the impressive results of the Brexit party in the European elections, it is still far from certain whether Farage can really oust the Tories from the political stage in Great Britain. Much depends on how the Conservatives will continue after May’s resignation and, above all, who will succeed May. Even Farage should have few arguments and chances against a Boris Johnson as head of the Tories.

Sources used: with material from the news agencies dpa, Reuters, AFPBBC: Brexit Party dominates as Tories and Labor suffer (English) BBC: European Elections: What they tell us about support for Brexit (English) The Telegraph: EU election results analysis: How the Brexit Party won the most UK seats more sources show less sources

The good result of the CSU and the narrow election victory in Bremen cannot hide the fact that the European elections are a warning shot for the Union.argumentative essay topics pdf Time is working against them.

The CDU and CSU threaten to lose touch with an entire generation: The Greens were the strongest party among voters under 60, only 11 percent of the first-time voters made their mark on the CDU and CSU. “The young people are turning against their parents’ party – with full force,” says t-online.de politician Tatjana Heid. “In the long term, this means the end of its status as a people’s party for the Union.”  

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 What does the Union have to do now? First of all, take younger potential voters seriously. In addition, as a ruling party, the Union must learn to communicate – apart from its regular clientele. See the full comment in the video.

Sources used: welt.de: Bundestag election 2017 – the voter migration in pictures Watson: “Is there a Rezo effect?”

In the opinion polls of mid-April 2019, the Christian Democratic EPP landed with the German CSU politician Manfred Weber as the top candidate despite significant losses. The European party family of CDU and CSU would therefore come to around 24 percent across the EU. Well behind would be the Social Democrats (19.8 percent) and the Liberals (10.1 percent). 

For their current projections, the pollsters assumed that Great Britain will take part in the European elections again despite the Brexit plans. The European Social Democrats (SD) and the right-wing populists would particularly benefit from British participation.

Winner and Loser

The big winner in the polls is the Europe of Nations and Freedom parliamentary group, which currently includes the Austrian FPÖ, the Italian Lega and the French Rassemblement National (formerly Front National) party. The largest parliamentary groups in particular would have to fear serious losses. The EPP could therefore lose around 5 percentage points compared to 2014, as would the Social Democrats. If both camps want to form a kind of coalition again, for example to elect the future EU Commission President, this time they would have to involve at least one other party.

Forecasts for Germany

At least partly responsible for the losses of the large party families are the bad values ​​of the CDU, CSU and SPD. According to the polls, the CDU and CSU must expect to get four fewer seats than in 2014. They would only come to 30 percent. The SPD could even crash the polls from 27 to 17 percent. The Greens would come to 18 (plus 7), the AfD to 11 (plus 4) and the FDP to 7 percent (plus 4 percent).

Forecasts by EU member states

Click on a country to open its survey results. To do this, close the results for the whole of Europe beforehand.

 

The Greens also triumph in local elections. In the east, it is above all the AfD that can look forward to high growth. CDU and SPD are also losing in the municipalities.

In the local elections in ten federal states, the trend towards the European elections seems to be confirmed. In the countries from which numbers and interim results from the previous day’s elections were already available on Monday, the Greens – especially in the West – and the AfD – especially in the East – were among the parties with the largest profits. The CDU and SPD, on the other hand, also suffered heavy losses in these elections. Nevertheless, the CDU was often able to maintain its top position. In Hamburg, however, the Greens seem to have the edge.

A few hours after the count began, on Monday they were more than 30 percent across Hamburg – an increase of 12 percentage points compared to the previous district elections, as the state returning officer announced. For the SPD, the districts continued to decline to around 25 percent (minus ten points). According to the interim results, the CDU also lost a lot: it came to just under 17 percent (minus eight) in all of Hamburg. The AfD was able to record a significant increase of 3 points to 7.5 percent.

CDU still the strongest party in Saarland

According to forecasts, the Greens in Baden-Württemberg achieved similarly good results as in Hamburg in the cities of Mannheim, Karlsruhe and Stuttgart, where they were the strongest force everywhere. Further results from Baden-Württemberg were not expected until late Monday evening and Tuesday. In Saarland, the CDU remained the strongest party ahead of coalition partner SPD despite losses. The Greens came in third.

Also in the eastern countries, from which results were available by the afternoon, the Greens and AfD were among the parties with growth, while the CDU remains the strongest force despite losses. For example, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the CDU achieved its worst result to date, but still clearly remained the municipal number one – ahead of the Left, SPD, AfD and Greens. The AfD tripled its share of the vote to 14.0 percent nationwide. In the district of Vorpommern-Greifswald, as in the state elections in 2016, it again passed the 20 percent mark. The Greens also gained strong votes, climbing from 5.8 to 10.3 percent.

Loss for CDU in Saxony-Anhalt

In the election for Rostock citizenship, they achieved their best result nationwide with 19 percent and were only just behind the left (19.9) as the strongest force. In the mayoral election, the non-party Dane Claus Ruhe Madsen was ahead, but he will have to run in a runoff election against Rostock’s Social Senator Steffen Bockhahn (left) on June 16. According to the German Association of Cities, Madsen would be the first city mayor without a German passport if he was elected.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the Christian Democrats recorded a large minus after counting almost all districts, but defended their top position. The AfD was also able to grow strongly here and established itself in second place. In Brandenburg, the state’s opposition CDU was just ahead of the SPD and the left in city councils and municipal councils, according to the interim results.

Surprise in Rhineland-Palatinate

The AfD reached 11.3 percent, compared to an overall result of 2.0 percent five years ago, as the state election officer in Potsdam said. The Greens achieved 8.7 percent in the interim result and were thus able to double their overall result from 2014.

There was a curiosity in Rhineland-Palatinate: A 100-year-old candidate made it to the city council in Kirchheimbolanden, Palatinate.

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Millions of voters in Germany were called on Sunday to cast their votes in local elections in addition to the European elections. In Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, the votes in the municipalities were also used as a mood test for the state elections in autumn. In addition, a new citizenship was elected in Bremen.

Across Germany, the AfD comes to just under eleven percent in the European elections. But it is the strongest party in two federal states.

The AfD posted strong wins in the European elections in East Germany and has become the strongest force ahead of the CDU in Saxony and Brandenburg. In Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the right-wing populists were each in second place behind the CDU. Compared to the European elections in 2014, the AfD won clearly double digits in all East German territorial states. The European elections were also considered a mood test for the upcoming state elections in Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia in autumn.

After the AfD in Saxony had already landed first in the 2017 federal election, it was 25.3 percent according to the preliminary final result, while Michael Kretschmer’s CDU got 23 percent of the vote. In the European elections in 2014, the AfD came to 10.1 percent in the Free State. A new state parliament will be elected in Saxony on September 1st. The municipality in which the AfD achieved its highest individual result is also located in the state: 45 percent in Neißeaue, the easternmost town in Germany. The municipality has many problems. Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer came in January to ask citizens’ questions.

The AfD also won the European elections in Brandenburg. Around three months before the state elections there, it achieved 19.9 percent of the vote after counting all electoral districts. This was a significant plus compared to the 2014 European elections (8.5). The SPD of Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke collapsed compared to the European elections five years ago and only came in third place with 17.2 percent. The CDU was in second place with 18.0 percent.

In Thuringia, the CDU was only just able to defend its status as the strongest party against the AfD.

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